Molina Healthcare (MOH): Valuation Perspectives Following Lawsuits and Revised Earnings Guidance

Investors are keeping a close eye on Molina Healthcare following a wave of class action lawsuits that address the company’s recent handling of medical cost trends and downward earnings revisions. The legal developments underscore rising scrutiny around Molina’s financial transparency.

See our latest analysis for Molina Healthcare.

Despite the recent lawsuits and cuts to earnings guidance, Molina Healthcare’s share price has shown pockets of resilience in the short term, jumping 6.2% over the past week and 16.4% over the last month. However, momentum has faded over the longer term. The one-year total shareholder return is -37.5%, and the five-year total return is roughly flat. This highlights how much sentiment has shifted as investors factor in new risks and ongoing uncertainty.

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After such significant downward revisions and legal headwinds, is Molina Healthcare now undervalued based on its fundamentals, or have markets fully absorbed the risks and priced in the tougher growth outlook, leaving little room for upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Overvalued

Molina Healthcare’s latest consensus price target sits at $196.71, which is 7% above its recent close of $203.26. Analysts are signaling that the company’s shares are just a touch above what earnings and growth prospects currently support.

"The analysts have a consensus price target of $196.714 for Molina Healthcare based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $330.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $153.0."

Read the complete narrative.

What is really driving the analysts’ math? It is a tug of war between steady revenue gains, tightening margins and one future profit ratio that could set the whole narrative. Do you want to know which financial forecasts are powering this price target and what might flip the script?

Result: Fair Value of $196.71 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent policy shifts or unexpected Medicaid funding cuts could quickly derail Molina’s earnings recovery and force yet another reconsideration of future growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Molina Healthcare narrative.

Another View: Is the Market Missing Something?

Stepping away from analyst targets, our DCF model suggests a far more optimistic valuation for Molina Healthcare. According to the SWS DCF model, the stock could be trading well below its intrinsic value, which may indicate it is potentially undervalued. But does this mean the market really has it wrong, or are there hidden risks the model does not capture?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.MOH Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025

Build Your Own Molina Healthcare Narrative

If the consensus does not quite align with your perspective, you can dive into the numbers first-hand and shape your own story in just a few minutes. Start with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Molina Healthcare.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MOH.

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