How Recent Moves Are Rewriting the Story for BHP

BHP Group’s stock has seen its Fair Value Estimate rise modestly, moving from £43.51 to £44.42 per share. This adjustment comes as analysts weigh updated guidance and reflects a subtle but meaningful shift in intrinsic valuation as both optimism and caution persist. Stay tuned to discover how you can keep up with these evolving perspectives on BHP Group’s outlook.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

Analyst coverage of BHP Group has recently reflected both optimism and caution, with research updates from several prominent firms. The following perspectives summarize the street’s evolving outlook on BHP Group’s performance and value.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

JPMorgan’s Dominic O'Kane maintained a Neutral rating but raised the firm's price target for BHP Group twice in recent months, first from 2,130 GBp to 2,160 GBp, and then from 2,160 GBp to 2,200 GBp. These upward revisions recognize incremental improvements in BHP’s intrinsic valuation and reflect confidence in the company’s operational execution. Analysts noted BHP’s ability to provide clear guidance and steady results, even as sector headwinds remain. Optimism centers on management’s delivery and ongoing efforts in cost control and efficiency. Despite neutral ratings, the modest but consistent price target increases suggest that analysts believe some further upside may be attainable if execution remains robust and inflationary pressures continue to normalize.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Citi downgraded BHP Group to Neutral from Buy, assigning a price target of A$43. The firm acknowledged strong recent results and an impressive dividend surprise, but expressed skepticism about replicating such outperformance moving forward. Citi also highlighted that overall cost levels remain above pre-pandemic benchmarks, presenting potential risks to margins. BMO Capital also downgraded BHP Group, moving the rating from Outperform to Market Perform while maintaining its price target of 2,000 GBp. BMO cited valuation concerns, noting that recent share price rallies have left little room for further appreciation and that free cash flow yields are currently below average. Bearish analysts caution that, while BHP’s execution remains solid, much of the upside may already be priced in and the near-term risks, particularly around cost management and project delays, warrant a more cautious stance.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

Story Continues

ASX:BHP Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

What's in the News

BHP is evaluating the possibility of reopening inactive mines located in the historic U.S. copper belt, prompted by recent changes in government policy that now favor the mining sector. China has temporarily halted all BHP iron ore cargoes in response to a pricing dispute. The government has also instructed its steelmakers and traders to pause purchases of dollar-denominated seaborne iron ore. BHP has joined forces with leading steelmakers and industrial companies to spearhead initiatives in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) throughout China. These efforts aim to address industry emissions. BHP, together with Vale, has put forward a $1.4 billion settlement offer in a UK class action lawsuit stemming from the Mariana dam disaster. However, claimants are pushing for a higher amount.

How This Changes the Fair Value For BHP Group

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from £43.51 to £44.42 per share. This indicates a modest increase in the intrinsic valuation of BHP Group. The Discount Rate has increased marginally from 7.42% to 7.43%, implying a minor adjustment in risk assumptions applied to future cash flows. Revenue Growth projections remain negative but have improved from -0.82% to -0.38%. This reflects expectations of a less pronounced revenue decline. The Net Profit Margin has increased from 20.86% to 22.02%, suggesting improved profitability in updated forecasts. The Future P/E Ratio has fallen from 17.33x to 16.25x. This points to either higher projected earnings or a slightly lower valuation multiple assigned by the market.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

A Narrative is a powerful story behind the numbers, connecting the company's history, its financial forecasts, and fair value, all in one place. Narratives let you understand the “why” behind the estimates and are available to everyone on Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions. By comparing fair value to the current price, Narratives help you decide when to buy or sell. They update dynamically as fresh information and news arrive.

Want to see how these insights come together? Read the full BHP Group Narrative and follow along for these key reasons:

Understand how global decarbonization and Asia’s infrastructure boom are expected to underpin future demand for BHP’s critical minerals and steelmaking materials. See how disciplined capital management and a focus on long-life, low-cost assets drive premium pricing and resilient shareholder returns, even as risks remain. Explore the key threats from iron ore dependency, inflation, regulatory hurdles, and the ever-evolving ESG landscape, which are essential for anyone weighing BHP’s true long-term prospects.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

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