Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) -The Federal Reserve left its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its July 29-30 meeting to keep downward pressure on inflation, which remains above target. President Donald Trump, who has for months tried unsuccessfully to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, was disappointed.

Dissents by two Fed governors in favor of a rate cut at July’s meeting, recent data suggesting further labor market cooling and a shift in commentary from several central bank officials in the dovish direction may already be setting the table for an interest-rate cut as soon as September.

Here is a look at Fed officials’ comments since their last policy meeting, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as shorthand for their monetary policy leanings. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts.

The designations are based on public comments and published remarks. For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story, or click on the photos in this graphic.

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st k

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job

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Notes: The current policy rate target range is 4.25%-4.50%. The median of Fed policymaker projections in June was for half a percentage point of rate cuts this year, though seven of the 19 projected no cuts at all. The Fed next publishes projections at its September meeting.

The Fed’s seven governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. Three - Waller, Bowman and Powell - are Trump nominees; three were nominated by former President Joe Biden; Trump has nominated Stephen Miran to the remaining open seat. Each Fed governor votes at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting, held eight times a year

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule. Fed regional bank presidents are picked by the directors of their own regional banks, subject to approval by the Fed’s Board of Governors.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into Fed meetings.

FOMC Dove Dovis Centr Hawki Haw

Date h ist sh k

Sept 2 3 8 5 0

’25

July 1 3 8 7  0

’25

Jan.- 0 3 9 7 0

June

’25

Dec. 0 2 10 7 0

’24

Nov. 0 0 13 5 0

’24

Sept 0 1 12 5 0

’24

May 0 1 10 6 1

throu

gh

July

’24

March 0 1 11 5 1

’24

Jan 0 2 9 4 1

’24

Dec 0 2 9 4 1

’23

Oct/N 0 2 7 5 2

ov

’23

Sept 0 4 3 6 3

’23

June 0 3 3 8 3

’23

March 0 2 3 10 2

’23

Dec 0 4 1 12 2

’22