Midterm Fight Over Trump Bill, Tariffs Starts Early at Iowa Fair

State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott, a Democrat from Iowa and US congressional candidate, center, greets attendees as Representative Zach Nunn, a Republican from Iowa, fourth right, takes a photo at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, on Aug. 13.

(Bloomberg) -- Republican Representative Zach Nunn is making an Iowa State Fair video about President Donald Trump’s tax law, shot on a John Deere tractor under the blazing August sun.

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In it, Nunn, one of the nation’s most vulnerable incumbents, talks to constituent Sarah Curry about how the expanded child tax credit will help with the cost of one child’s speech therapy. Nunn is also planning to use the state fair as the backdrop for more videos selling the bill’s provisions temporarily cutting taxes on tips and overtime.

Economic issues — namely, Trump’s tax package and his tariff war with countries that buy much of Iowa’s agricultural products — will be front and center in Nunn’s race, and he’s eager to get a jumpstart defining the issues. So, too, are Democrats, who see Iowa’s two swing districts as must-wins in their push to take back the House majority.

Democrat Jennifer Konfrst, who is working to unseat Nunn, said she approaches Iowans at the fair asking them what keeps them up at night and the answer is usually “costs.”

“What I am talking about with the big bill is connecting the dots between who got the biggest tax cuts — that was billionaires — and what the impact will be.” she said. “Their hospital might have to close or they will have less access to health care.”

Salesmanship

The Iowa State Fair is one of the ultimate props in American politics. It’s always been a place to meet and greet constituents, and the social media age has only amped up its importance, with videos of savvy politicians frying pork loins and eating deep-fried butter often going viral.

Trump, shortly after signing the bill last month, flew to the fairgrounds to promote the legislation. Nunn went along for the ride.

“I got to fly on Air Force One back to Iowa with the president and he made it very clear that this is one of the most important races we’ve got,” Nunn said.

Fellow Iowa Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, whose reelection bid is also endangered, attended the fair with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, posing in front of a 3,100-pound “Super Bull.”

“We were talking about how it might go viral. It was almost jumping up and down as we were in front of it,” Scalise said in an interview. His suggested tagline? “I’m bullish on the Big Beautiful Bill.”

Story Continues

Politicians descended on the Iowa State Fair to meet constituents and sell them on Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson went to the fair too.Source: Bloomberg

Staged and scripted fair appearances have another upside: they put politicians in front of constituents while allowing them to avoid townhalls, which have become fraught for Republicans, who have been swarmed by constituents angry about Medicaid and other cuts in Trump’s bill.

But Democrats scored one viral moment at the fair when a mother confronted Republican Senator Joni Ernst about Medicaid. Ernst, who previously brushed off fears about Medicaid cuts by quipping that “we’re all going to die,” hasn’t announced whether she will run for another term in 2026.

“There are some people who are receiving benefits who shouldn’t be. But does that mean you condemn the whole society because of that?” said retiree Mary Campos, 95 who visited the Democratic booth in a wheelchair.

Iowa State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister running against Konfrst in the Democratic primary, said Democrats are trying to reverse their long decline in the state by reaching out to rural voters like those who dominate the fair.

“I think for a lot of voters, their reasons for voting are more like an emotional connection more than based in policy,” she said as she served biscuits and gravy at a church stand.

Key Races

The tax bill’s changes to Medicaid provider taxes will effectively reduce reimbursements for rural hospitals. Democrats say that will forcing some Iowa hospitals to close. They also say Iowa’s important wind industry — which generates more than half the state’s electricity — will suffer from the bill’s termination of wind-energy tax breaks, and residents will ultimately pay more for energy.

Democrats see their opposition to the bill as a winning issue.

“We came within 799 votes, less than a quarter of a percentage point and that was with Kamala Harris losing this district by eight points,” says Christina Bohannan, who is running again against Miller-Meeks. “We have a great shot at winning this time around.”

Miller-Meeks was instrumental in creating a $50 billion rural hospital fund and is working on helping Iowa hospitals best use it, holding roundtables this month with hospital directors. Iowans, she added, largely support the Medicaid work requirements established in the bill.

“I don’t have to sell the bill,” she said in an interview. “You do have to clarify some lies about the bill.”

Trade Wars

For many Iowans, the more immediate concern — and one that permeated the fair — is Trump’s trade policies. The president has threatened high tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting Chinese buyers to look elsewhere for US farm products, particularly soybeans. Iowa is the nation’s second-largest producer of soybeans, after Illinois.Chris Buffington at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines.Photographer: Scott Morgan/Bloomberg

“Farmers are taking it in the shorts right now and are probably willing to take it in the shorts as long as this thing turns around” said farmer Chris Buffington, 70 who was wearing a red “Make Corn Great Again” cap.

Patrick Hartung, 58 who farms 3,100 acres of corn and soybeans in Preston, Iowa, said there is no way for the market to make farmers whole without Chinese buyers.

“We are going to have a bumper crop in Iowa unless a storm knocks it down. What we have to figure out is the other end,” he said, adding the president should take a more gradual approach to striking a lasting deal with trading partners like China.

Trone Garriott said that for Democrats the trade war is part of the party’s wider economic argument.

“It’s creating a lot of chaos for our economy,” she said.

Candidates on both sides admit the state of the Iowa economy next year probably will be the most important factor in the midterms here, and that could ultimately determine which party controls the House.

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