U.S. EU trade deal 'not far' from baseline forecast, says ECB chief

[ECB Press Conference Following Governing Council Meeting]
Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images News

ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the new US-EU trade deal is "not far" from the baseline forecast.

"The trade deal establishes an effective average tariff estimated to lie between 12% and 16% for US imports of euro area goods. This effective average tariff is somewhat higher than – but still close to – the assumptions used in our baseline projections last June." Lagarde remarked at the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum.

"It is worth noting that the outcome of the trade deal is well below the severe scenario for US tariffs of over 20% for euro area goods envisaged in the June projections." she added [https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2025/html/ecb.sp250820~38a22ae5fe.en.html].

The ECB currently projects euro area economic growth at 1.1% for next year, which would have been reduced to 0.7% in a severe tariff scenario.

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