Constellation Brands stock plunges on lower fiscal 2026 financial outlook; BUD, SAM, peers down

[Alcools.]
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Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/STZ]) was trading lower after the beer, wine, and spirits company revised down [https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20217166-constellation-brands-updates-fiscal-2026-outlook] its fiscal 2026 financial outlook, citing weak consumer demand.

Shares were -8.08% Tuesday pre-market to $148.86.

Notably, Molson Coors Beverage (TAP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TAP]) (-3.15% to $48.90), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BUD]) (-2.35% to $61.20), Brown-Forman (BF.A [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BF.A]) (-1.15% to $30.00) (BF.B [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BF.B]) (-2.47% to $29.20), and Boston Beer Company (SAM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SAM]) (-2.38% to $215.83) are showing similar price movements Tuesday pre-market.

Constellation Brands updated its fiscal 2026 EPS estimate to $10.77 - $11.07 from $12.07 - $12.37, and the comparable EPS outlook to $11.30 - $11.60 from $12.60 - $12.90. The consensus EPS estimate [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/STZ/earnings/estimates] for the year ending February 2026 is $12.65.

Enterprise organic net sales growth is now expected to decline by 6% to 4%, vs. the prior estimate of 2% decline-1% growth.

The updated guidance is marked by an expected decrease of 4% to 2% in beer net sales growth, compared to the previously expected increase of 0%-3%.

The decrease is attributed to incremental macroeconomic headwinds affecting consumer demand.

"We continue to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment that has dampened consumer demand and led to more volatile consumer purchasing behavior since our first quarter of fiscal 2026," said CEO Bill Newlands.

"Over the last several months, high-end beer buy rates decelerated sequentially, as both trip frequency and spend per trip declined. Notably, high-end beer buy rate declines for Hispanic consumers were more pronounced than general market declines, which has an outsized impact on our Beer Business compared to the broader beer category," said Newlands.

"Looking at our second quarter, we expect inventory rebalancing at the distributor level to reflect softer consumer trends, and to occur earlier than is typical for our Beer Business," said CFO Garth Hankinson.

"As a result, we expect the change in shipments to trail the change in depletions in the second quarter by 6.0 to 7.0 points, and for shipment volume to generally align with depletion volume for the second half of the fiscal year," added Hankinson.

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