AICPA and CIMA US Economic Outlook Survey

The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) third quarter Economic Outlook Survey indicate a modest rise in optimism among business leaders regarding the US economy.

The survey, which includes responses from CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other senior management accounting professionals, revealed that 34% of the executives are optimistic about the economic outlook for the coming year, an increase from 27% in the previous quarter.

This level of optimism, however, remains significantly lower than the 67% recorded in the fourth quarter of the previous year, although it is an improvement from the 26% reported in the same quarter last year.

Concerns surrounding inflation and tariff implications continue to influence the perspectives of business executives.

A notable 54% expect a recession to occur either this year or next, a decrease from 61% in the last quarter. Inflation has now become the primary concern, surpassing "domestic economic conditions."

A significant portion of executives (58%) reported experiencing moderate to significant uncertainty in their business planning due to changing tariff schedules.

In response to these economic pressures, companies have primarily chosen to raise prices (30%), reduce operating costs (24%), and explore alternative supply chain options (23%).

The AICPA survey acts as a forward-looking indicator, assessing hiring and business expectations for the next year. In contrast, the US Department of Labor’s employment report, which is set to be released tomorrow, will reflect on past hiring trends.

Key insights from the survey indicate that hiring remains stable, with 16% of executives indicating an immediate need to recruit new employees, which is an increase of two percentage points from the previous quarter.

Conversely, 14% reported having an excess of employees, up from 12% last quarter.

Projections for profit and revenue growth have shown a slight recovery, with expected revenue growth for the next 12 months now at 1.5%, consistent with the previous year and a 0.5 percentage point increase from the last quarter.

Additionally, 37% of executives expressed a positive outlook for their own organisations over the next year, unchanged from the last quarter but down four percentage points from a year ago.

The percentage of those anticipating business expansion rose to 46%, an increase of three percentage points quarter over quarter.

In addition to inflation and domestic economic conditions, the survey identified employee and benefit costs, materials/supplies/equipment costs, and domestic political leadership as significant issues facing businesses.

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The third-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from 5 August to 26 August 2025, gathering 275 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA) designation holders in leadership roles.

"AICPA and CIMA US Economic Outlook Survey" was originally created and published by The Accountant, a GlobalData owned brand.

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