Jobs revision today could show more labor market weakness

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Job growth is the U.S. has stalled in recent months, but economists believe the slowdown in employment may have started much earlier.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday will release its preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls for the 12 months through March. This is the last major jobs data before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week.

Economists are expecting a major markdown in the level of employment for the period, with the payroll count estimated to be around 700,000-800,000 lower than previously reported.

"If the revision is as negative as forecast, it will show the economy had less momentum entering 2025 than previously believed," said Bill Adams, chief economist, Comerica.

He added that while this would have fewer implications for monetary policy than the August jobs report [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4492706-us-adds-far-fewer-jobs-than-expected-in-august-unemployment-rate-rises-to-43], a weak benchmark revision would add pressure for the Fed to cut rates next week.

BLS' annual preliminary benchmark revision is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program, which tracks more than 95% of U.S. jobs. The final benchmark revision will be released in February.

The BLS is already facing criticism over recent large markdowns to monthly jobs data. President Donald Trump slammed the BLS for allegedly rigging the data, and even fired the agency's head.

The larger revisions to jobs data in recent years have been attributed partly to declining response rates from employers, as well as BLS' birth-death model - which estimates the number of jobs created or lost due to businesses opening or closing.

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