Market Minute 9-17-25- Markets Mark Time as Fed Decision Looms

Most assets are marking time right now, including stocks and Treasuries. Gold, silver, and crude oil are trading slightly lower along with Bitcoin, while the dollar is up a smidge.

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Today is one of those days where investors and traders are holding their collective breath. The Federal Reserve is wrapping up its two-day meeting right now and will announce its interest rate decision later today. Rate futures markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis point cut, with about a 6% chance the Fed goes 50 instead.

As the Wall Street Journal’s “Fed Whisperer” Nick Timiraos wrote, “This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up to be one of the strangest in years” because of all the political gamesmanship surrounding it. President Trump himself weighed in on Sunday, suggesting the Fed deliver a “big cut.”

30-Year Mortgage Rate Average (3-Year Chart)chart

Data by YCharts

Regardless of exactly what happens today, it’s clear that Fed Chairman Jay Powell & Co. have pivoted when it comes to policy. They are focusing less on tariff-driven inflation and more on labor market weakness. Meanwhile, 30-year mortgage rates have been drifting lower in anticipation of easier policy. They recently slipped below 6.4%, helping push refinancing application activity to its highest since early 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

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Finally, shares of Workday Inc. (WDAY) are surging after an activist investor targeted the provider of cloud-based corporate HR, accounting, and audit software. Elliott Management said it built up a $2 billion stake in WDAY shares, and will work with management to boost the firm’s value. Separately, Workday said it would buy back $5 billion of its own stock over the next two years. It also revealed the $1.1 billion purchase of an Artificial Intelligence-focused firm Sana.

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