If there’s a U.S. government shutdown, this is the data to watch

Investing.com -- Piper Sandler warned in a note Monday that a potential U.S. government shutdown could delay key economic releases, but stressed there are “plenty of other data to gauge labor, inflation, etc.”

In its weekly research note, the firm said “there’s concern that if there’s a government shutdown, important economic data will be delayed, e.g., payrolls (scheduled to be released Oct 3rd), and the CPI (Oct 15th). Well, they will eventually be reported … but with a lag of perhaps 10 days after the reopening.”

In the meantime, Piper Sandler pointed investors to a wide range of private and alternative data.

“Sep 30: Conference Board’s jobs hard-jobs easy, which correlates very well with the unemployment rate,” the analysts wrote.

They added that the Oct. 1 ISM and S&P Global PMIs would provide critical labour and inflation signals, noting their price components have been “consistent with inflation cooling a bit.”

The firm highlighted other key indicators: mortgage applications on Oct. 1, ADP employment data, weekly jobless claims on Oct. 2 and Oct. 9, and industrial production on Oct. 10.

Piper Sandler emphasised that “unemployment claims WILL be reported, as they were during the 2013 shutdown,” and warned they would likely rise if federal workers are furloughed.

Later in October, the NFIB small business report (Oct. 14), Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys (Oct. 15–16), and NAHB housing index (Oct. 16) will offer further insights.

Piper Sandler also said it would “watch our Daily consumer confidence survey to gauge how consumers see any shutdown.”

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