China's official PMI shows slowed contraction, but private survey signals growth, creating mixed economic picture

[China Flag and Economic Downturn With Stock Exchange Market Indicators in Red]
ronniechua

China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in September 2025, up from 49.4 in August and slightly beating the 49.7 market forecast. Although this marks the sixth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity (readings below 50), the decline was the slowest in that period.

China’s official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in September 2025, down from both the August reading and market estimates of 50.3.

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index edged up to 50.6 in September 2025 from 50.5 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since June.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in September 2025, surpassing both August’s 50.5 and the market consensus of 50.3, marking the highest reading since March, matching the level seen that month.

The RatingDog China General Services PMI inched down slightly to 52.9 in September 2025 from 53.0 in the previous month, but remained above market expectations of 52.3.

The RatingDog China General Composite PMI rose to 52.5 in September 2025 from 51.9 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since June 2024.

SEPARATELY, China will introduce a new policy-based financial instrument worth CNY 500 billion (USD 70.3 billion) as part of efforts to improve financial services for the real economy and boost effective investment, a spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday, according to Xinhua.

On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHCOMP?source=section%3Asearch_bar%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection_asset%3Asearch-basic%7Csearch_item%3Ashcomp%7Crow_num%3A1%7CURL_first_level%3Anews%7Ctopic%3Asymbol] added 0.3% to above 3,870 while the Shenzhen Component edged 0.1% higher to 13,490 on Tuesday, building on the prior session’s gains, and the offshore yuan [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USD:CNY#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aglobal%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link] steadied to around 7.13 per dollar on Tuesday, pausing after two straight sessions of gains, as investors assessed fresh PMI data pointing to mixed signals in China’s economy.

Still, trading activity is expected to stay muted ahead of the week-long National Day holiday.

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Currency: (CNY:USD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNY:USD])

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