Kalshi predicts government shutdown lasting 30 days, nearing a historic record

[American Shutdown]
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Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are predicting that the government shutdown will last a little more than 30 days, which would get it perilously close to being the longest in U.S. history.

Data from Kalshi suggests that the odds of [https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01] a shutdown lasting more than 25 and 35 days have increased up to 68% and 37%, respectively, while traders have given a 49% chance that it will extend beyond 30 days.

The last government shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, lasting 34 days from Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019, during President Donald Trump’s first term.

The current shutdown, which began on Oct. 1, enters its third week with thousands of layoffs across multiple federal agencies, as lawmakers are not expected to vote on a funding measure until Oct. 14 amid a long weekend.

Investors have largely shrugged off concerns over the funding impasse, with the S&P 500 (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]) remaining positive this week until Friday, when stocks sank following Trump’s renewed tariff threats against China. [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4503345-trump-threatens-to-pull-out-of-xi-meeting-massive-new-tariffs-on-china]

MORE ON THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

* Brace For The Government Shutdown [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825743-brace-for-government-shutdown]
* Government Shutdown, Schmuckdown [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4827691-government-shutdown-schmuckdown]
* Wall Street opens in an upbeat mood even as U.S. shutdown drags on [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4503214-sp500-nasdaq-dow-jones-outlook-stock-market]
* Kalshi now sees government shutdown lasting nearly 21 days, second-longest in U.S. history [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4501859-kalshi-now-sees-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-21-days-second-longest-in-us-history]
* Trump says ACA subsidies won't be discussed until government shutdown ends [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4502815-trump-says-aca-subsidies-wont-be-discussed-until-government-shutdown-ends]