Brent rises as Trump says Modi to stop buying Russian oil

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices rose from a five-month low on Thursday after US president Donald Trump claimed Indian prime minister Narendra Modi had committed to ending purchases of Russian crude, a move that could tighten global supplies.

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62.35

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Brent crude (BZ=F) futures rose 0.8% to trade at $62.41 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures gained 1% to $58.89 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed Tuesday at a five-month low.

The uptick came despite the lack of a confirmed timeline from New Delhi, and no official announcement has been made by the Indian government.

India’s foreign ministry responded by reaffirming its commitment to energy security and price stability, noting it would continue to diversify its sourcing.

Alongside China, India has been a major buyer of discounted Russian oil (BZ=F, CL=F), taking advantage of the G7 price cap mechanism aimed at limiting Moscow’s revenues while maintaining global supply.

The United States is reportedly trying to get China to also stop buying oil from Moscow, in an attempt to pressure the Kremlin to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine.

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Washington has grown increasingly vocal about India's continued purchases of Russian oil, with senior US officials accusing Indian companies of profiting from the war-linked discount. The issue remains a key point of friction in ongoing US-India trade negotiations. India’s trade secretary said on Wednesday the country has capacity to increase oil imports from the US by up to $15bn.

“This is bullish news for sure,” Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of energy consultancy Xanalysts in Sydney, told Bloomberg. “India’s Russian oil imports have been roughly three times those from the US, so replacing those volumes would likely require ramping up purchases from the Middle East.”

Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices surged to an all-time high in early European trading, extending their rally into a fifth straight session, amid trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, a US federal government shutdown and the prospect of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

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At the time of writing, gold (GC=F) futures had gained 1%, to $4,245.60 per ounce, while the spot price had climbed 0.8% to $4,234.41 per troy ounce, a record high.

"The commentary from the Fed that emphasised higher prospects of rate cuts going forward is supportive, while US president Donald Trump turning around and labelling this a trade war is clearly providing a pretty strong impetus for gold (GC=F)," said OANDA senior analyst Kyle Rodda.

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Trump declared the US was locked in a trade war with China, fuelling fears of sustained economic disruption, adding to the appeal of gold (GC=F). Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, however, signalled a more dovish tone, suggesting a pause in new tariffs on Chinese goods to defuse tensions over critical minerals.

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At the same time, a looming US federal government shutdown and the broader prospect of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have reinforced investor demand for gold (GC=F).

Analysts at ANZ Group Holdings, including Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes, described gold’s (GC=F) rise as an “extraordinary rally,” with no immediate signs of slowing. They raised its year-end forecast to $4,400 per ounce, with a peak near $4,600 expected by June 2026.

Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X)

The pound rose modestly on Thursday, supported by broad-based dollar weakness as escalating US-China trade tensions and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut unsettled investor sentiment.

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Sterling was 0.2% higher against the greenback at $1.3420 and up 0.1% against the euro at €1.1515.

Sterling gained against the dollar after a dispute between Washington and Beijing over critical supply chains intensified. It also secured some gains after data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew 0.1% in August.

"Relative to its G10 peers, the pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X) has managed a fairly unremarkable performance in recent weeks. Like all other G10 currencies, it has lost ground vs. the USD and, while it is also trended lower vs. the EUR in recent weeks," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

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The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.1% to 98.65.

The dollar is being weighed down by risk aversion and shifting interest rate expectations. Investors are increasingly anticipating that the Federal Reserve could cut rates as early as next month.

In equities, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was lower on Thursday morning, down 0.2% to trade at 9,408 points. For more details on market movements, check our live coverage here.

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