China's industrial output surges 6.5%, consumer spending slows to 1-year low; jobless rate falls to 5.2% in September

[Multi exposure of virtual abstract financial graph interface on Chinese flag and sunset sky background, financial and trading concept]
Igor Kutyaev

China's September 2025 economic data delivered mixed signals for its economy. Industrial Production provided a strong beat, accelerating sharply to 6.5% year-on-year (surpassing the 5.0% forecast and August's 5.2%). However, this manufacturing strength was offset by weak domestic demand, as retail sales slowed to 3% (from 3.4% in August), representing the weakest growth since August 2024.

In the labor market, the surveyed unemployment rate saw a marginal improvement, ticking down to 5.2% from the prior month's 5.3%, compared to market expectations and August’s six-month high of 5.3%. The jobless rate among locally registered labor forces stood at 5.3%, while the rate for the migrant labor force was 4.9%.

On a monthly basis, retail trade fell by 0.18% in September, reversing a revised 0.25% gain in August. Over the first nine months of 2025, retail activity expanded by 4.5% compared to the same period in the previous year.

For the 1st nine months of the year, industrial production grew by 6.2%. Monthly, industrial output advanced by 0.64%, marking the strongest growth in seven months.

CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE decreased to 74.6 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from 75.1 percent in the same period a year earlier.

SEPARATELY, CHINA’S NEW HOME PRICES across 70 cities fell 2.2% year-on-year in September 2025, easing from August’s 2.5% decline and marking the mildest drop since March 2024.

CHINA’S FISCAL REVENUE climbed by 0.5% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to a year earlier, following a 0.3% rise in the January–August period.

CHINA’S GDP grew 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, beating market expectations of 0.8% and following a marginally revised 1.0% gain in Q2.

THE PEOPLE’S BANK OF CHINA kept key lending rates at record lows for a fifth consecutive month in October, in line with market expectations.

On Monday, the Shanghai Composite [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHCOMP?source=section%3Asearch_bar%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection_asset%3Asearch-basic%7Csearch_item%3Ashcomp%7Crow_num%3A1%7CURL_first_level%3Anews%7Ctopic%3Asymbol] rose 0.5% to around 3,860 while the Shenzhen Component rallied 1.5% to 12,880 on Monday, recouping some losses from the previous session amid signs of easing Sino-US trade tensions, and the offshore yuan [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USD:CNY#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aglobal%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link] traded flat around 7.12 per dollar on Monday, holding near three-week highs as investors assessed a raft of fresh Chinese economic data.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:FXI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FXI#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:KWEB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KWEB#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:CQQQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CQQQ#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NASDAQ:MCHI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MCHI#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:ASHR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASHR#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:YINN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YINN#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSE:TDF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TDF#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:CHIQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CHIQ#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:GXC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GXC#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:EWH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWH#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:KBA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KBA#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:YANG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YANG#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NASDAQ:CXSE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CXSE#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSE:CAF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAF#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:CWEB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CWEB#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NASDAQ:PGJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PGJ#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:KURE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KURE#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]).

Currency: (CNY:USD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNY:USD])

MORE ON CHINA MARKETS AND ECONOMY

* China's 1.1% Q3 GDP beats forecasts on policy boost, but trade war looms [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4505470-chinas-11-q3-gdp-beats-forecasts-on-policy-boost-but-trade-war-looms#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]
*
PBoC holds key lending rates steady for fifth straight month [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4505472-pboc-holds-key-lending-rates-steady-for-fifth-straight-month#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]

*
U.S.-China trade agreement leads to lifted chip design software restrictions [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4465143-us-china-trade-agreement-leads-to-lifted-chip-design-software-restrictions#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]

* China's trade surplus widens amid weaker exports and deeper import slump [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4456405-chinas-trade-surplus-widens-amid-weaker-exports-and-deeper-import-slump#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]
*
China’s May CPI declines fourth consecutive month, PPI deflation eases to two-year low [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4456404-chinas-may-cpi-declines-fourth-consecutive-month-ppi-deflation-eases-to-two-year-low#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-news%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]