Euro Zone to Get Hard Data on Tariff Damage as ECB Sets Rates

The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB), in Frankfurt, Germany, on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. After cutting interest rates eight times in a year to bring inflation to around their 2% target, ECB policymakers are signaling they’re well positioned to tackle any sudden shifts in the economic backdrop. Photographer: Ben Kilb/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Europe will get a rigorous economic health-check this week, helping gauge the impact of US tariffs on growth and inflation as policymakers convene to set interest rates.

The main event will be Thursday’s initial reading of gross domestic product for the euro zone in the third quarter, which arrives just hours before the European Central Bank reveals the outcome of its two-day monetary-policy meeting.

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Analysts expect the bloc to maintain the minimal 0.1% expansion it managed in the three months through June. National reports from some of the region’s biggest economies will add further color.

Almost as important will be October’s inflation reading a day later. A dip to 2.1% from last month’s 2.2% is anticipated. The ECB will also publish its Bank Lending Survey, which helps assess how smoothly monetary policy is reaching the real economy.

The updates come on the heels of a volatile first half to 2025. Activity initially hummed as companies sought to get ahead of April’s imposition of US tariffs. But a subsequent reversal was keenly felt, particularly in Germany, where second-quarter output shrank 0.3%.

The latest data will show how businesses and households adjusted to July’s pact between the European Union and the US to set levies for most goods leaving the bloc at 15%.

“Consumer confidence remains subdued despite a robust labor market, and GDP figures will reveal whether the recovery in private consumption anticipated by the ECB continues to fail to materialize,” said Christian Keller, head of economics at Barclays. “Against the backdrop of weak domestic demand, external headwinds, and low capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector, we also see the risk that investment activity will only recover gradually.”

Stagnation wouldn’t necessarily alarm the ECB, which is overwhelmingly expected to keep borrowing costs at 2% when officials gather in Florence, Italy — this year’s choice for the one policy meeting annually held away from its Frankfurt base.

With inflation hovering around 2% and forecasts signaling an economic rebound will gain traction toward year-end, most are content to leave the deposit rate where it is. It may do so for the next two years, according to a poll of analysts by Bloomberg.

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Business surveys published Friday offered hope that a revival in the euro area’s fortunes will indeed materialize as private-sector activity unexpectedly hit its highest level since May 2024. Germany, which is about to unleash billions of euros of spending on infrastructure and defense, was the driving force as France — rocked again by political turmoil — struggled.

Some remain skeptical.

“We should take PMIs with caution,” said Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Bank of America’s head of Europe Economics Research. “They have sent false signals before. But they are consistent with still a struggling manufacturing sector and, in the case of Germany, supportive domestic demand dynamics at the start of the fourth quarter.”

Europe’s largest economy is under the spotlight as Chancellor Friedrich Merz tries to engineer a recovery from two years of contraction. Factory data this summer were weak, and the Bundesbank has warned that third-quarter output “is likely to flatten at best.”

Another three months of negative growth would plunge Germany into recession. But the fourth quarter may prove stronger, with Monday’s monthly survey from the Ifo institute showing the outlook among firms improved to its highest level since 2022 in October.

France is also in focus due to its fractured politics and the fight over how to rein in its runaway budget deficit. It’s set to remain a major risk for the euro area’s outlook, according to Soeren Radde, who heads European economic research at Point72.

“I expect growth to pick up in the fourth quarter and the strong October PMI print has reinforced that expectation. But if I had to think of a catalyst that will weigh on sentiment in the fourth quarter, I think it would be France,” he said. “The other risk is that I don’t really see a catalyst for an improvement in the German industry until next year, until the fiscal stimulus kicks in, which I think will take some time.”

As for inflation, a slowdown would confirm the ECB’s assertion that price growth is essentially at target for now. Investors are looking for signs it could come in weaker than expected in the months ahead, with the ECB already predicting a temporary undershoot next year. Any evidence of that dragging on or becoming more pronounced could revive talk of additional rate cuts.

“Inflation momentum is waning and markets see inflation risks as firmly to the downside,” said Katharine Neiss, chief European economist at PGIM Fixed Income. She sees a risk inflation could “get stuck” a little way below 2% in 2026.

--With assistance from Harumi Ichikura.

(Updates with Ifo in 14th paragraph.)

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