Odds now 1 in 4 that government shutdown lasts beyond Thanksgiving

[New York during the COVID-19 emergency.]
Massimo Giachetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Prediction markets are now betting the U.S. government shutdown will stretch well into November.

On Kalshi, traders are pricing the shutdown to last nearly 47 days [https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01], with the odds of it extending to Nov. 30 rising to around 25%.

Polymarket odds are roughly a coin flip (47%) that the stalemate will persist beyond Nov. 16 [https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1761747050347].

Even as the shutdown curtails the flow of macro data, it has done little to dampen equity optimism — the S&P 500 (SPY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY]) (IVV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVV]) (VOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VOO]) continues to trade at record highs, suggesting the market’s animal spirits remain intact.

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