An unofficial jobs report sees nonfarm payrolls edge down in October

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With the lack of the Bureau of Labor Statistic's monthly jobs report, private data sources and the Federal Reserve Bank system are helping to paint the labor market picture. Here's a collection of some of the most relevant reports:

REVELIO LABS DATA indicates that U.S. nonfarm payrolls dropped by 9K in October to 159,329.0K, suggesting that the labor market has been stagnant for the past few months. In August, Revelio's estimate was 159,215.1K.

The private report [https://www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor-statistics/employment/], which includes government and private sector data, estimated that education and health services rose by 22.0K and financial hiring increased by 9.6K during the month, while government jobs dropped by 22.2K and retail trade lost 2.8K jobs.

As reported earlier, ADP ESTIMATED [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4515648-private-sector-employment-stages-rebound-in-october-adp-jobs-report]that the U.S. private sector added 42K jobs, more than the 25K consensus of economists.

CHICAGO'S LABOR MARKET INDICATORS estimates the unemployment rate at 4.36% for October, barely changed from 4.35% in September. Likewise, the rate for layoffs and other separations ticked [https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/chicago-fed-labor-market-indicators/latest-release]up to 2.10% from 2.09%. And the hiring rate for unemployed workers dropped to 44.81% in October from 45.13% in the previous month.

CITI ECONOMISTS, led by Gisela Young, estimate that initial jobless claims increased to 229K from 220K during the week of Nov. 1, based on data from states and territories, except New Mexico and the Virgin Islands. That indicates that private sector layoffs are staying low, for now, they said.

Continuing claims, meanwhile, likely rose to 1.964M from 1.957M during the week of Oct. 25, "somewhat lower than the 1974k we were expecting," the Citi economists wrote in a note to clients.

However, the firm CHALLENGER, GRAY & CHRISTMAS reported on Thursday that the number of job cuts announced in October [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4516145-u-s-job-cuts-through-october-top-full-year-2024-cuts-by-44-percent-challenger-report]jumped to 153,074, up 183% from September and 175% from a year ago.

"This implies upside risk for initial jobless claims in coming months, but the exact timing and size is unclear," Citi's Young and associates wrote. "We continue to watch initial claims as a clearer high frequency indicator for layoffs."

The EVERCORE ISI EMPLOYMENT COS. SURVEY ticked down 49.9 in October from 50.4, "Overall, the survey remains in a sideways trend this year, clearly slower than the past several years," Oscar Sloterbeck, head of Company Surveys at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note on Friday.

MORE ON THE US ECONOMY

* 'Money Printing' By The Fed: Fact Or Fiction? [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4840161-money-printing-by-fed-fact-or-fiction]
* Consumers trim their short-term inflation expectations in October: NY Fed [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4518618-consumers-trim-their-short-term-inflation-expectations-in-october-ny-fed]
* Consumer sentiment weakens again in November print as shutdown drags on [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4518613-consumer-sentiment-weakens-again-in-november-print#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aus-economy%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]
* Indeed data suggests job postings have dropped 37% from 2022 [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4514844-indeed-data-suggests-job-postings-have-dropped-37-from-2022#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aus-economy%7Csection_asset%3Anews_title]