What Does Fiserv’s 70% Drop Mean for Its True Value in 2025?

Wondering if Fiserv stock is trading at a bargain or is just cheap for a reason? You are not alone. The value story here is sparking plenty of debate. The stock has seen a steep drop lately, falling 4.5% over the past week and losing nearly 70% in value so far this year. This dramatic shift has put it squarely on value investors’ radars. Recent headlines about major fintech mergers and ongoing digital payments competition have put Fiserv under the spotlight, fueling fresh speculation about its strategic position. Investors are watching for signals as the broader sector shifts and deal activity heats up. Fiserv scores a 5 out of 6 on our value checks, suggesting there is more to unpack before making a call. Let’s break down how we arrive at this verdict using classic valuation approaches, and stick around as we reveal one powerful way to cut through the noise at the end of the article.

Find out why Fiserv's -69.8% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Fiserv Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns valuation model assesses how efficiently a company puts its equity capital to work. It looks at the difference between the returns generated on invested capital and the cost of that equity, showing whether the business is creating lasting value beyond what investors could get elsewhere.

For Fiserv, the figures stand out. The company’s Book Value clocks in at $46.78 per share, with a Stable EPS forecasted at $9.78 per share, according to weighted estimates from eight analysts. Fiserv’s Cost of Equity is $5.28 per share, leading to an Excess Return of $4.50 per share. The firm’s average Return on Equity is a solid 17.00%, and analysts project a Stable Book Value of $57.53 per share in the future.

This model estimates Fiserv’s intrinsic value at $133.50 per share. With the current market price lagging behind, the numbers suggest the stock is 52.3% undervalued when considering the returns it reliably generates versus its cost of capital. In other words, the company is consistently earning more on its equity than the minimum return required by investors, which serves as a strong value signal.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Fiserv is undervalued by 52.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 870 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.FI Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Fiserv.

Approach 2: Fiserv Price vs Earnings

When analyzing established, consistently profitable companies like Fiserv, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool. This metric tells investors how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings, making it simple to compare with other businesses in the same sector and to broader benchmarks.

Story Continues

A company’s "normal" or "fair" PE ratio is shaped by its growth prospects and risk profile. High-growth firms or those with lower perceived risk usually command a higher PE, while slower growth or riskier businesses tend to trade at lower multiples. So, it is important to look beyond raw numbers and consider what the market is pricing in for both potential and pitfalls.

Fiserv currently trades at a PE of 9.5x. For context, the average PE across peers is 13.7x, and the Diversified Financial industry sits at 13.1x. This means Fiserv’s stock is priced well below both its direct competitors and the broader sector. However, just looking at these averages can be misleading since they do not capture this company's unique growth rates, margins, or risk factors.

That is where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” comes in. The Fair Ratio, at 18.0x for Fiserv, is a tailored benchmark that incorporates elements like market cap, earnings quality, growth forecasts, profit margins and industry trends. It goes deeper than a simple peer or industry average by taking into account the full financial context investors care about.

Comparing Fiserv’s current 9.5x PE with its Fair Ratio of 18.0x suggests the stock is being valued well below what its fundamentals justify. In this case, the gap highlights a significant difference between the market price and the valuation suggested by these fundamentals.

Result: UNDERVALUEDNYSE:FI PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1401 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Fiserv Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your unique story about a company that links together your expectations for its future, including everything from revenue growth and profit margins to potential risks, into a personalized forecast and fair value estimate.

This approach goes far beyond just crunching numbers. It brings meaning to the data by helping you explain why you believe Fiserv will thrive or struggle, drawing on both your assumptions and what is happening in the business and industry. Narratives make complex financial analysis accessible. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, you can create, follow, or adjust Narratives using a simple interface and see how your views compare with those of millions of investors.

With Narratives, you always see an up-to-date Fair Value based on your assumptions and can instantly compare it to the market price. This makes it easy to know when to buy or sell. These valuations are dynamically updated as new news or earnings come out, keeping your investment thesis grounded in the latest information.

To illustrate: some investors bullish on Fiserv see its fair value as high as $250, expecting strong long-term growth, while others are more cautious, estimating a fair value as low as $125, reflecting concerns about execution and competitive pressures.

Do you think there's more to the story for Fiserv? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NYSE:FI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FI.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

View Comments