BofA adjusts ratings for U.S. chemical makers amid weak outlook

[Chemist discussing with colleagues in laboratory]
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Bank of America Securities on Thursday issued a wave of rating changes for U.S. chemical producers following a challenging second-quarter earnings season marked by cautious guidance, falling commodity chemical forecasts and persistent structural headwinds.

DOWNGRADES

* CF INDUSTRIES (NYSE:CF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CF]) was cut to Underperform from Neutral, with the price objective reduced to $82 from $93. Analyst Matthew DeYoe cited a looming oversupply in nitrogen fertilizers, particularly ammonia, driven by large-scale “blue” and “green” projects such as NEOM diverting capacity into the merchant fertilizer market. Additional pressure is expected from potential Chinese urea export increases in 2026–2027.
* GREEN PLAINS (NASDAQ:GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]) was lowered to Underperform from Neutral after a roughly 170% rally since April. While ethanol margins have expanded and carbon capture prospects have improved, DeYoe warned that margins could reset lower in coming months, with dilution risks as the company manages debt maturities.

UPGRADES

* DOW INC. (NYSE:DOW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DOW]) was raised to Neutral from Underperform after its dividend cut improved cash flow sustainability. While recovery to normalized earnings could take years, DeYoe sees shares as oversold with 9% upside to the $25 price target.
* RPM INTERNATIONAL (NYSE:RPM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RPM]) moved to Neutral from Underperform on resilient organic sales growth and strong demand in performance coatings for data centers and distribution facilities. The price objective rises to $128 from $110, reflecting confidence in the company’s M&A integration capabilities.
* SHERWIN-WILLIAMS (NYSE:SHW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHW]) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with the target lifted to $375 from $296. DeYoe noted that negative catalysts have largely played out, and the company remains well-positioned to benefit from a housing recovery, even at a valuation premium.

DeYoe also reiterated positive views on select agricultural chemical names, including Mosaic (NYSE:MOS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MOS]) and Corteva (NYSE:CTVA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CTVA]), while cautioning that petrochemical earnings remain under pressure, with Huntsman (NYSE:HUN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HUN]) and LyondellBasell (NYSE:LYB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LYB]) among the most at risk for further downside.

MORE ON CF INDUSTRIES, DOW, ETC.

* Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4812218-green-plains-inc-gpre-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* Mosaic: A Strong Foundation, But Not A Buy (For Now) [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4810891-mosaic-a-strong-foundation-but-not-a-buy-for-now]
* CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4810621-cf-industries-holdings-inc-cf-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* CF Industries, Corteva upgraded at Barclays on strong results, LatAm growth potential [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4484884-barclays-upgrades-cf-industries-corteva-on-strong-results-latam-growth-potential]
* Green Plains pledges ethanol plants against debt held by BlackRock [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4484789-green-plains-pledges-ethanol-plants-against-debt-held-by-blackrock]