Gold has crushed stocks, bonds and even bitcoin in 2025. This banking giant just got more bullish.

All that’s glittering is still gold, says UBS Global Wealth Management, whose strategists have a shiny new price target. - Getty Images

Stocks may be in for a struggle until Jay Powell steps up to the Jackson Hole podium on Friday. Also paying attention will be gold bugs, ears perked for rate-cut hints from the Fed chief.

Lower interest rates or increasing sentiment for that has tended to work in gold’s favor because it lowers the opportunity cost of holding the asset — lower rates mean less returns on interest-bearing investments like bonds and savings accounts.

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Meredith Whitney famously called the 2008 financial crisis. Here’s the new problem with the U.S. economy, she says Lowe’s tops Home Depot with an $8.8 billion buyout deal and an earnings beat The bond market is flashing a potentially worrisome sign about Fed rate cuts I’m single, 75, and living with kidney disease and a pacemaker. I’ve no long-term care insurance. Will I be OK?

Recent data showing weak jobs numbers and less worrying inflation have driven hopes for a September rate cut, though others warn Powell may try to push back on that this week.

Our call of the day from UBS Global Wealth Management strategists is a bullish one on gold that comes with higher price targets on the asset GC00 that has gained 28% this year, putting it ahead of all major stock and bond indexes, G-10 currencies and even bitcoin.

A team led by Wayne Gordon now expects gold prices, trading at $3,388 on Tuesday, to reach $3,600 per ounce by end March 2026 and to $3,700 by end June 2026, both from $3,500 per ounce previously. They introduced an end-September 2026 target, also at $3,700 an ounce. The strategists are still aiming at $3,500 for the end of this year.

“Despite the dialing back of some trade frictions, we see U.S. macro-related risks, questions over Fed independence, worries about fiscal sustainability, and geopolitics underpinning de-dollarization trends and more central bank buying. In our view, these factors will drive gold prices even higher,” said Gordon and his team.

They say a combination of sticky U.S. inflation — fallout from tariffs and immigration crackdowns have yet to be felt — and below-trend growth will push down real U.S. yields, which will cut that opportunity cost of holding gold.

Headed into 2026, investment demand for gold will be supported by those de-dollarization trends, Fed independence questions and concerns about sustainability of the U.S.’s fiscal position, with midterms looming after September, said the UBS team. They noted that recent World Gold Council data indicated the strongest inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first half of the year since 2010.

Story Continues

The UBS team also lifted their full-year ETF demand forecast to nearly 600 metric tons, from 450, noting that current holdings are still under prior highs. Central bank purchases are also expected to remain strong, though slightly under near-record buying last year.

“We therefore now forecast global gold demand to increase by 3% to 4,760 [metric tons] in 2025, which would mark the highest level since 2011. The key risk for gold is if the Fed is forced to raise rates,” said Gordon and his team.

After climbing at the start of the year, gold prices entered a summer lull, though did manage to log a new $3,439.20 high on July 22. Gold’s fan base has been building with DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach earlier this summer praising the metal as a real asset class, saying it was “no longer for lunatic survivalists and wild speculators.”

Tempering this gold excitement is Callum Thomas, head of research and founder of Topdown Charts, who raised some thoughts on the commodity in a post on Monday. He sees rotation around gold as a bigger theme, with other commodities such as industrial metals set to play catch up to gold’s hefty gains.-

The markets

U.S. stocks SPX COMP DJIA have opened mostly lower, Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD02Y are slipping and oil prices CL00 BRN00 are down over 1%.

Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 6449.15 1.19% 2.28% 9.65% 14.99% Nasdaq Composite 21,629.77 1.14% 3.13% 12.01% 20.99% 10-year Treasury 4.343 4.90 -0.70 -23.30 53.30 Gold 3380.4 -0.39% -0.88% 28.08% 32.95% Oil 62.3 -2.66% -5.29% -13.32% -15.59% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

The buzz

Home Depot HD shares are down after the home improvement retailer missed expectations for profit and sales, though stuck to its full-year outlook.

Palo Alto Networks stock PANW is climbing after an earnings and revenue beat and strong forecast from the cybersecurity company.

Intel shares INTC are climbing on news of a $2 billion investment in the chip maker by Japan’s SoftBank JP:9984.

Apple AAPL reportedly plans to broaden out iPhone production in India for iPhones headed to the U.S.

Viking Therapeutics stock isVKTX falling after trial news around its oral weight-loss drug.

S&P reaffirmed its AA+ U.S. sovereign-credit rating, with a stable outlook, and said an independent Fed is the best way to shield against a downgrade.

July housing starts were stronger than expected, while building permits were weaker than forecast. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will make a couple of appearances, starting at 10 a.m.

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The chart- @albertocavallo

Harvard professor Alberto Cavallo shares this chart on his X account that shows a growing impact from U.S. tariffs — imported goods are 5% more expensive and domestic goods 3% more than predicted from pre-tariff trends. His chart also shows how there was a whole year of stability for those prices before tariff inflation hit.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

Ticker Security name NVDA Nvidia TSLA Tesla INTC Intel PLTR Palantir GME GameStop OPEN Opendoor BINI Bollinger Innovations AAPL Apple NIO NIO UNH UnitedHealth

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