Gold stays quiet, with Powell’s Jackson Hole speech seen as next potential price catalyst

[stack of shiny gold bars 3d illustration]
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Gold futures fell modestly on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar pared losses and held steady, while investors mostly held their fire ahead of the Federal Reserve's annual symposium this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak Friday on the economic outlook and central bank's policy framework.

The speech will be scrutinized for dovish comments on the prospect of easing interest rates, which would boost the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion.

Traders see an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool, but "the path beyond remains uncertain," Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said in a note.

The gold price is well-supported but traders are looking for the next catalyst, with the Jackson Hole gathering and Powell's speech likely to be the immediate focus, Hansen wrote, adding that ultimately the trigger for the next move higher could stem from a more obviously dovish Fed, weaker U.S. data or a geopolitical shock.

UBS raised its gold price target [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4486788-ubs-raises-gold-forecasts-through-2026-as-2025-rally-tops-all-asset-classes] for March 2026 by $100/oz to $3,600/oz, citing persistent U.S. macroeconomic risks, questions over Fed independence, and worries about fiscal sustainability, among verious factors.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAUUSD:CUR]) for August delivery ended -0.5% to $3,313.40/oz, its lowest settlement since July 31 and fifth loss in seven sessions, and front-month Comex August silver (XAGUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAGUSD:CUR]) finished -1.8% to $37.261/oz, its lowest close since August 4 and third decline in four days.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD]), (NYSEARCA:GDX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDX]), (GDXJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDXJ]), (NYSEARCA:IAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IAU]), (NYSEARCA:NUGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NUGT]), (PHYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PHYS]), (GLDM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLDM]), (AAAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAAU]), (SGOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGOL]), (RING [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RING]), (BAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAR]), (OUNZ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OUNZ]), (SLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLV]), (PSLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSLV]), (SIVR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SIVR]), (SIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SIL]), (SILJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SILJ])

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