Venture Global raised to Buy at UBS on strong execution, reduced arbitration risk

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Venture Global (NYSE:VG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VG]) +3.8% in Monday's trading as UBS upgraded the natural gas producer to Buy from Neutral with an $18 price target, saying the volume ramp-up at Plaquemines LNG continues to surprise to the upside and that the Street is underestimating the number of commissioning cargoes from the facility.

Venture Global (NYSE:VG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VG]) reported 89 cargoes at Plauqemines in Q2, at the top end of guidance and 13 more than the fully ramped Calcasieu Pass, compared to 63 in Q1 and 36 in Q2 2024, and UBS analyst Manav Gupta estimated the number will come in ~600 vs. the company's guidance of 550, adding that the 50 additional commissioning cargoes could drive $970M in earnings upside.

Venture Global (VG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VG]) still trades at a 2.5x discount to the peer group, Gupta said, expecting the stock to close the valuation gap as execution improves and potentially the risk of payout in case of loss during the arbitration process declining materially following its recent arbitration victory [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4484334-venture-global-wins-arbitration-case-against-shell-in-lng-contract-dispute] against Shell.

MORE ON VENTURE GLOBAL

* Venture Global Q2 2025 Earnings Call Presentation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815850-venture-global-inc-2025-q2-results-earnings-call-presentation]
* Venture Global's Poor Performance Ignores The Growth [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815099-venture-globals-poor-performance-ignores-growth]
* Venture Global: Cleared For Growth As Arbitration Affirms Business Model [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813612-venture-global-cleared-for-growth-as-arbitration-affirms-business-model]