Better setup to 2026 leads Baird to upgrade VF Corp, Canada Goose, Rocky Brands

[Senior female owner giving bag to customer at checkout in clothing store]

As tariffs torpedoed much of the retail sector’s performance during the first half of 2025, the setup looks much better for the remainder of the year and beyond thanks to encouraging back-to-school spending and an improved macro environment that will fuel increased consumer spending.

On the heels of results from VF Corp (NYSE:VFC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFC]), Rocky Brands (NASDAQ:RCKY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RCKY]), and Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOS]), Baird Equity Research upgrades all three to Outperform from Neutral.

To underpin his upgrade, Baird analyst Jonathan Komp points to waning tariff-related shocks on consumer spending, lower interest rates coupled with moderate inflation to support increased household net worth, easier spending comparisons to the first half of the year, and the potential rebound in fall/holiday 2026 orders, the combination of which will contribute to improved metrics for the retail sector.

This includes Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOS]) which will enjoy better brand momentum thanks to an improved product, a clearer focus on merchandising, and investments in marketing.

For VF Corp (NYSE:VFC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFC]), improving financials, increased cost savings, and high operating and financial leverage not only makes VF Corp (NYSE:VFC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFC]) “compelling in a favorable 2026 macro scenario,” but will help offset a skate trend that may not materialize to bolster its Vans brand.

For the broader retail sector (XLP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLP]) (XLY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLY]), the valuation across the group looks “reasonable” and the consensus for near-term EPS growth should inflect beginning in 2026, setting the stage for stocks to move higher.

“We are shifting our ratings further positively, placing greater emphasis on laggards most levered to improving 2026 macro conditions and sentiment,” Komp said in his note to clients, adding that while labor market conditions and brand health are key risks to monitor, low entry prices and “washed out sentiment” can help limit downside.

The upgrade to Outperform drove shares of VF Corp (VFC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VFC]), Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOS]), and Rocky Brands (NASDAQ:RCKY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RCKY]) all higher on Tuesday.

MORE ON V.F. CORP, ROCKY BRANDS, ETC.

* V.F. Corporation: Great Brands, But The Math Doesn't Work [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4808357-vf-corporation-stock-great-brands-but-math-does-not-work]
* What Moved Markets This Week [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4808061-what-moved-markets-this-week]
* Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4807427-canada-goose-holdings-inc-goos-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript]
* Canada Goose Holdings Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.91 misses by $0.28, revenue of $107.8M beats by $41.14M [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4475355-canada-goose-holdings-non-gaap-eps-of--091-misses-by-028-revenue-of-1078m-beats-by-4114m]
* V.F. Corporation outlines $500M–$600M operating income improvement target while advancing Vans turnaround [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4474451-v-f-corporation-outlines-500m-600m-operating-income-improvement-target-while-advancing-vans]