Camping World sets $310M adjusted EBITDA floor for 2026 amid conservative new RV outlook and used segment strength

Earnings Call Insights: Camping World Holdings, Inc. (CWH) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Marcus Lemonis, Chairman & CEO, highlighted, “I'm encouraged by our company's financial performance in the quarter, growing adjusted EBITDA by over 40% to $95.7 million. The team drove record volume on a year-to-date basis and sold nearly 14% of our new and used RVs in North America.” He emphasized continued focus on affordability and value, noting plans to “enter 2026 with consumer sentiment and labor markets uneven and OEM new pricing rising on like-for-like models.” He described the company’s net leverage reduction by nearly 3 turns since the beginning of the year, and announced a “conservative” adjusted EBITDA floor for 2026 of $310 million, excluding potential upside from cost takeouts, used unit sales, M&A, or a more optimistic new unit forecast.
* Matt Wagner, President, outlined four potential upside levers for 2026: “SG&A, used RV sales, dealership acquisitions and new RV sales.” He identified $15 million of further cost takeout opportunities, particularly through technology and AI, and stressed scalability in the used RV supply chain. Wagner added, “If our used business exceeds our high-single-digit outlook, we expect to yield roughly $6 million of adjusted EBITDA for every 1,000 additional used units sold.”
* CFO Thomas Kirn reported, “For the third quarter, we recorded revenue of over $1.8 billion, an increase of 5%, driven by unit volume increases in used in excess of 30%.” He noted new ASPs improved sequentially to just under $38,000, a decline of roughly 9% year-over-year. Kirn stated, “SG&A as a percentage of gross profit improved 360 basis points year-over-year as we start to fully realize more of the run rate savings from earlier in the year.” He cited $230 million in cash on the balance sheet and outlined significant inventory and real estate assets.

OUTLOOK

* Management set an adjusted EBITDA floor of $310 million for 2026, describing it as “a very conservative outlook” that does not include several sources of potential upside. Lemonis explained, “Our company will continue to rely on our market-leading used sales, service and Good Sam businesses as our differentiators.” Wagner added, “We certainly have a plan to exceed this starting point through 4 sources of upside: SG&A, used RV sales, dealership acquisitions and new RV sales.”
* Management expects fourth quarter 2025 to be impacted by new unit trends and lapping of prior-year benefits, including $4 million to $5 million in Good Sam loyalty breakage and $4 million to $5 million in F&I actuarial benefits.
* For 2026, the company is purposely modeling a “conservative outlook on the new RV market, given the OEM prices passed along to dealers.”

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* The company reported Q3 revenue of over $1.8 billion, driven by a more than 30% increase in used unit volume. Adjusted EBITDA reached $95.7 million, up from $67.5 million in the prior year period. New ASPs improved sequentially to just under $38,000, while gross profit performance on a GPU basis was described as strong. SG&A as a percent of gross profit improved by 360 basis points year-over-year. Balance sheet improvements included $230 million in cash, $427 million in used inventory, $173 million in parts inventory, and nearly $260 million in unencumbered real estate.

Q&A

* Joseph Altobello, Raymond James, inquired about new RV demand softness and consumer resistance. Wagner responded, “We are seeing high-single-digit declines in the new RV industry... However, we know through our very creative mechanisms of our exclusive products, brands that we oftentimes are able to buck trends.” Lemonis discussed their “more tempered approach to stocking and to forecasting.”
* Altobello followed with a question on affordability and rates. Wagner explained, “If we're to add about $1,000 of cost and the interest rate drops... that would actually create the same exact monthly payment. However, we're not quite seeing that take hold just yet.” Lemonis added unpredictability around Fed actions and tariffs as reasons for conservatism.
* James Hardiman, Citi, asked about the path to $310 million EBITDA and drivers for upside. Lemonis said, “We're hopeful that we can have that sort of upside growth. But as we mentioned earlier, we just really don't know what's happening in the macro, and I think that's caused it.” Kirn and Wagner referenced Q4 setups and investments in AI to drive further cost savings.
* Charles Scholes, Truist, asked about market share targets. Lemonis stated, “We have been very clear over the last 2 years that 15% was our goal.” Wagner suggested a 50-100 basis point market share gain in the coming year.
* Craig Kennison, Baird, probed on OEM price increases and contract manufacturing mix. Wagner said, “On average, it's panning out to about 5% to 7%.” For model year 2026, Wagner indicated an increased reliance on contract manufactured and exclusive products.
* Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc, asked about the upside levers and M&A. Wagner confirmed the order: “SG&A, used RV sales, dealership acquisitions and new RV sales.” Brett Andress, SVP, said, “Our confidence and our line of sight into returning to that 10-plus door growth per year, I would say, the activity in the pipeline would support that today.”
* Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO, inquired about new RV retail demand assumptions for 2026. Wagner indicated, “We believe it's conservative to estimate that as the RV industry has trended this year, low-to-mid single digits down year-over-year, that we anticipate that trend line and that slope to continue.”

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts largely maintained a neutral to slightly cautious tone, focusing on the sustainability of used RV performance, new RV pricing resistance, and the achievability of the $310 million EBITDA floor. Multiple questions pressed management on upside levers and the specifics of market share and margin trends.
* Management’s tone was confident in prepared remarks, particularly around operational improvements and the ability to outperform the industry, but shifted to more cautious and pragmatic language during Q&A, emphasizing uncertainty and conservatism: “We just really don't know what's happening in the macro.” Lemonis was forthright about the unpredictability of macro factors and the need for a “tempered approach.” Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone was more conservative and defensive, especially regarding new RV sales and macroeconomic headwinds.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Guidance language shifted from a focus on growth and mid-cycle targets in Q2 to the establishment of a conservative $310 million EBITDA floor for 2026 in Q3.
* Strategic focus remains on used RV sales, cost efficiency, and selective M&A, but the Q3 call emphasized risk management and cautious forecasting, in contrast to more optimistic projections in Q2.
* Analysts in both quarters concentrated questions on pricing, market share, and cost controls, though Q3 featured more probing about downside protection and the realism of management’s outlook.
* Key metrics such as adjusted EBITDA, market share, and cash position showed improvement, but management’s language signaled greater caution about forward growth, especially in new RVs, than in the previous quarter.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management cited unpredictability in consumer sentiment, labor markets, and OEM pricing as challenges. Lemonis highlighted “the lack of predictability around what the Fed is going to do” and tariffs as imposing factors.
* Kirn noted that Q4 will lap prior-year benefits, which could impact comparability.
* Analysts raised concerns about new RV market headwinds, margin sustainability, and the ability to execute on cost savings and M&A.
* The company’s mitigation strategies include a focus on used RVs, SG&A efficiency, and careful inventory management.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Camping World management emphasized a conservative approach heading into 2026, establishing a $310 million adjusted EBITDA floor and prioritizing operational efficiency, used RV expansion, and selective M&A. While the company achieved strong EBITDA growth and improved leverage in Q3, management remains vigilant about macroeconomic uncertainties and cautious in its outlook for new RV sales, signaling a commitment to flexibility and risk management as market conditions evolve.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/cwh/earnings/transcripts]

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