Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Margins Surge on $288M One-Off Gain, Challenging Sustainability Narratives

Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) reported net profit margins of 26.4% for the period, up sharply from last year’s 8.3%. This improvement was helped by a one-off gain of $288.0 million, which significantly boosted its results over the last 12 months to September 30, 2025. Earnings growth reached 225.3% compared to the previous year, notably reversing the company’s five-year average annual decline of -12.3%. While these gains are notable, attention now turns to future prospects, with revenue expected to rise 8.3% per year and a forecasted 3% annual decline in EPS over the next three years.

See our full analysis for Centerra Gold.

The next section examines how these headline results compare with the dominant narratives around Centerra Gold, providing a deeper look at what is driving investor sentiment and what could surprise the market.

See what the community is saying about Centerra GoldTSX:CG Earnings & Revenue History as at Oct 2025

Profit Margin Jump Driven by One-Off Gain

Centerra Gold's net profit margin reached 26.4% for the latest period, up from 8.3% the year before, largely because of a one-off gain of $288.0 million that significantly boosted after-tax profits. According to the analysts' consensus view, this dramatic improvement in margin is flagged as partially non-recurring because it depended on a special gain rather than core operations.

Consensus narrative notes that the inclusion of these non-recurring profits inflates profitability metrics, possibly presenting a more optimistic near-term picture than ongoing operations might provide. Analysts remain cautious about relying on such gains for sustained margin expansion, especially as future earnings per share are forecast to decline 3% per year over the next three years, despite healthy revenue growth forecasts. These headline numbers are notable because analysts maintain a balanced outlook, highlighting the improvement but also focusing on underlying recurring earnings power.
📊 Read the full Centerra Gold Consensus Narrative.

Trading at a Deep Discount to Peers

Centerra Gold trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.7x, which is less than half the peer group average (15.1x) and well below the Canadian metals and mining industry average (21.2x). This suggests investors are currently skeptical or are being offered a potential value opportunity. Consensus narrative highlights the favorable valuation, stating that the company’s share price could re-rate if upcoming organic growth projects deliver as planned and if operational enhancements offset rising sector-wide costs.

Bulls see room for multiples to expand, particularly if Centerra can sustain revenue growth at the forecasted 8.3% annual rate, which is higher than the Canadian market’s 4.9%. Conversely, downside risks such as execution delays or higher cost inflation could keep the stock trading at a discount or potentially put further pressure on the share price.

Story Continues

Analyst Price Target Much Closer to Market Value

The average analyst price target is CA$16.90, compared to the current share price of CA$15.71, for a potential upside of around 7.6%. This narrow gap suggests analysts view shares as fairly valued relative to growth forecasts and risk factors. Consensus narrative points out that for this price target to be justified, investors would have to expect Centerra Gold to generate $1.6 billion in revenues and $106.3 million in earnings by 2028 while also maintaining or improving margin levels.

The small margin between the price target and current share price reinforces that the market already prices in some optimism around project execution and cost control, but leaves little room for disappointment if profit trends fall short. This means that while the stock is not considered expensive, its potential upside depends on the company surpassing both cost and growth hurdles expected by consensus over the next several years.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Centerra Gold on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

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A great starting point for your Centerra Gold research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Despite a rebound in reported profitability, Centerra Gold faces skepticism due to reliance on non-recurring gains and forecasts of declining earnings per share.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CG.TO.

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