What Catalysts Could Shift the Narrative for NatWest Amid Analyst Upgrades and New Challenges

Analysts have adjusted their outlook on NatWest Group, pushing the consensus price target up from £6.05 to £6.37 per share. This modest increase reflects a blend of optimism about the company’s prospects alongside consideration of recent challenges. Read on to discover how these shifts in analyst expectations might influence the evolving narrative for NatWest, and how you can stay informed as circumstances continue to develop.

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What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Several major firms, including Citi and JPMorgan, have raised their price targets for NatWest in recent weeks. This indicates growing optimism about the company's outlook. For example, JPMorgan increased its price target to 730 GBp from 700 GBp while maintaining an Overweight rating. Citi raised its target to 690 GBp from 640 GBp, reaffirming its Buy stance. Analysts have cited NatWest's ability to deliver on execution and uphold cost control initiatives as key drivers behind their bullish calls. Growth momentum is also reflected in the gradual upward revisions of price targets. While the consensus is increasingly positive, analysts do note key reservations, including valuation concerns and the possibility that further upside may already be reflected in the current share price.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Some analysts maintain a more cautious outlook despite the recent price target increases. RBC Capital, for instance, raised its price target to 725 GBp from 650 GBp but keeps a Sector Perform rating, signaling neutral sentiment and reservations about limited near-term upside. Several updates from Morgan Stanley involved moderate price target increases, such as to 665 GBp and 650 GBp, but the firm consistently maintains an Equal Weight rating. This highlights persistent caution about valuation and specific near-term risks even as forecasts improve.

Overall, while there is clear recognition of NatWest Group's execution and stabilizing momentum, some analysts remain wary regarding how much further the shares can rise without additional positive catalysts.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!LSE:NWG Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

What's in the News

NatWest Group has completed the repurchase of 71.1 million shares for £374.29 million. This accounts for 0.88% of its total shares as part of the 2025 buyback program. The bank has updated its 2025 earnings guidance, projecting income of approximately £16.3 billion and maintaining a Return on Tangible Equity above 18%. This is in line with earlier outlooks. Reports indicate NatWest is seeking to sell its 85% stake in Cushon, a workplace pensions provider it acquired for £144 million. The sale is part of a strategic shift under CEO Paul Thwaite. NatWest has emerged as a potential bidder for Evelyn Partners, a wealth management firm valued at £2.5 billion. This move is part of ongoing industry consolidation.

Story Continues

How This Changes the Fair Value For NatWest Group

Consensus analyst price target has risen slightly from £6.05 to £6.37 per share. Discount rate has increased marginally from 8.40% to 8.46%. Revenue growth projection has fallen from 6.39% to 5.79%. Net profit margin expectation has improved from 29.36% to 30.96%. Future P/E ratio has declined from 11.0x to 10.4x.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives are a smarter, story-driven way to make investment decisions. On Simply Wall St, a Narrative links a company’s story with financial forecasts and fair value, so you know not just what the numbers are, but why they matter and how things could change. Narratives are easy to follow, updated dynamically as news and earnings come in, and available for millions of investors on the Community page. By comparing Fair Value to the current price, Narratives help you decide when to act, not just react.

Check out the original Narrative on NatWest Group to see the full picture and stay ahead of market moves: NWG: Improved Profitability And Capital Returns Will Drive Shares Despite Revenue Pressure

Get analyst-backed insight into how NatWest’s digital transformation, cost control, and capital returns are driving improved performance and shareholder value. See the latest forecasts for revenue growth, profit margins, and fair value, as well as the risks and assumptions behind them. Monitor the key catalysts and threats that could shift the narrative, helping you decide if now is the right time to buy, hold, or sell.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NWG.L.

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