Polaris (PII): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound

Polaris (PII) has seen some recent movement in its stock price, catching the attention of investors interested in consumer durables. Shares have climbed 16% over the past month, which invites a closer look at what is driving this uptick.

See our latest analysis for Polaris.

That pop in Polaris’s share price comes after a pretty sluggish stretch. While a 16% one-month share price return grabs headlines, the total shareholder return over the last year tells a much cooler story at just 0.4%. Recent momentum hints that investors might be growing more optimistic about the company’s outlook, or perhaps warming up to changing industry dynamics after a rough patch.

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With shares rebounding but long-term returns still underwhelming, investors have to ask themselves whether Polaris is currently undervalued or if the recent surge suggests that future growth is already getting priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Undervalued

Polaris’s narrative fair value of $65.64 sits just above the last close price, with analysts factoring in recent strategic changes and higher profit margins as key catalysts for upside. Their consensus brings together everything from industry trends to company-level shifts, offering a snapshot of optimism with a dose of caution.

"The divestiture of Indian Motorcycles is seen as accretive to earnings, with expectations for a meaningful lift to adjusted EPS due to margin improvements in the remaining business segments. Resumption of market share gains as competitors' previously high inventory levels have normalized indicates stronger brand positioning."

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about the driving force behind this valuation? Hints point to ambitious targets for profit margins and market share, with a bold turnaround strategy at the core. But what ambitious assumptions, hidden in the fine print, are analysts betting on to make their price target a reality? Dive into the full narrative to uncover the secrets powering this bullish view.

Result: Fair Value of $65.64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, uncertainty around tariff costs and the lingering impact of weak global sales could still undermine the optimistic narrative for Polaris.

Find out about the key risks to this Polaris narrative.

Another View: DCF Model Paints a Different Picture

While analysts see Polaris as slightly undervalued at current prices based on earnings growth and margin improvements, our SWS DCF model tells a very different story. It estimates fair value at just $7.25, which implies the stock is significantly overvalued if those long-term cash flow forecasts are correct. Could the market be mispricing the risks, or does the DCF model underestimate Polaris’s turnaround potential?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.PII Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Polaris for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 874 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Polaris Narrative

If you see the story playing out differently, there’s nothing stopping you from diving into the numbers yourself and shaping your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Polaris research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include PII.

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