Carlyle releases its own economics indicators, filling gap from government shutdown

[Global inflation rate]
bymuratdeniz

Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CG]), the alternative asset manager, released its proprietary U.S. economic data on Tuesday, portraying a solid U.S. economy, in the absence of U.S. government data due to the federal shutdown.

The firm estimates that U.S. employers added 17K jobs in September. That's similar to the August nonfarm payrolls number of 22K that the U.S. Labor Department estimated. Carlyle's (NASDAQ:CG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CG]) data is based on its global portfolio of 277 active companies, 694 real estate investments, and almost 730K employees worldwide.

"With one of the largest private company data sets, Carlyle can provide timely insights that help investors and policymakers navigate these dynamics when official data is unavailable, said Jason Thomas, head of Global Research & Investment at the company.

Other key findings from its data:

* Underlying U.S. economic growth is running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September.
* Real private construction spending fell 2.5% Y/Y.
* Business investment rose 4.8% on a three-month moving average seasonally adjusted annual return rate basis, with technology and AI-related capex leading the way.
* Regarding CPI inflation, energy fell 3.8%, services, excluding shelter, rose 3.3%, and durables prices increased 2.3%.

"Corporate spending, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure, continues to power growth while household consumption ends the quarter on a high note," Thomas said [https://www.carlyle.com/media-room/news-release-archive/carlyle-releases-proprietary-us-economic-indicators-government-shutdown]. "Combined, this suggests a U.S. economy growing faster than estimates of its long-term potential."

While private company data may provide some insight into the U.S. economy, it doesn't match the breadth of the U.S. government data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for one, calls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis the "gold standard" of statistics.

MORE ON THE US ECONOMY

* Wells Fargo sees labor market on a 'knife’s edge' amid untimely shutdown [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4501746-wells-fargo-sees-labor-market-on-a-knife-s-edge-amid-untimely-shutdown]
* ISM Service PMI unexpectedly slips to 50.0 in September [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4501733-ism-services-pmi-unexpectedly-slips-to-500-in-september]
* Government Shutdown 2025: Why Prolonged Gridlock Could Trigger Sharp Interest Rate Cuts [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4827823-government-shutdown-2025-why-prolonged-gridlock-could-trigger-sharp-interest-rate-cuts]