PacBio (PACB): Valuation in Focus After World-First NMPA Approval for Clinical Long-Read Sequencer in China

Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB) just hit a worldwide milestone after their Sequel II CNDx system, developed with Berry Genomics, gained Class III Medical Device approval from China's NMPA. This means clinical-grade long-read sequencing is coming to China.

See our latest analysis for Pacific Biosciences of California.

It’s been a wild ride for Pacific Biosciences of California this year. The 30-day share price return comes in at an impressive 34%, capped by last week’s regulatory breakthrough in China. Long-term investors have still taken a significant hit, with the one-year total shareholder return down over 21% and even steeper declines over three and five years. Short-term momentum may be building again as attention focuses on upcoming earnings, clinical wins, and the company’s expanding footprint in genomic medicine.

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With the stock rallying but long-term returns still deep in the red, the question is whether PacBio’s recent regulatory win has started a lasting turnaround, or if investors are already betting on bigger earnings and growth ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.3% Undervalued

The narrative’s fair value estimate of $2.11 stands above Pacific Biosciences’ last close at $2.00, highlighting a tight valuation gap that is drawing attention. But what is behind this cautiously optimistic outlook? Let’s unpack a central belief powering the narrative.

The growing number of national-scale population genomics and multi-omic initiatives globally, many adopting PacBio's long-read HiFi technology (e.g., 1,000 Genomes Long-Read Project, Southeast Asia and Nordic national programs), positions PacBio to capture expanding large-volume projects, which should materially increase future revenues and drive recurring consumables demand.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what drives that higher price? There is one aggressive expected shift in PacBio’s future revenue mix baked into this value, plus a bold turnaround in profitability that most companies only dream about. What metrics move the needle here? Dig deeper to find out what could really justify this target.

Result: Fair Value of $2.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent dependence on academic funding and intensifying competition could quickly turn optimism into a renewed struggle for sustainable growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Pacific Biosciences of California narrative.

Story Continues

Another View: What Do Market Multiples Say?

Looking at price-to-sales, Pacific Biosciences trades at 3.8 times sales, just above the US Life Sciences industry average of 3.7 times, but below the average for its peers at 4.3 times. However, our analysis suggests a fair ratio closer to 2.7 times sales, which makes the current price appear a bit rich. Does this mean investors are already factoring in a faster turnaround, or could there be room for disappointment if growth doesn't materialize?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.NasdaqGS:PACB PS Ratio as at Nov 2025

Build Your Own Pacific Biosciences of California Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the details yourself, you can easily build your own PacBio narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Pacific Biosciences of California research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include PACB.

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