Biogen Shares Recover Slightly Amid Clinical Trial Partnerships — Is the Stock Trading Below Fair Value?

Wondering if Biogen stock is priced for opportunity or risk? You are not alone. There is a lot more beneath the surface to consider when assessing its true value. Recently, Biogen’s share price has seen a modest climb, up 4.8% over the past week and 3.0% in the last month. However, it is still down 9.9% over the past year, pointing to both shifting expectations and evolving market sentiment. Several headlines have caught investor attention, including new clinical trial partnerships and regulatory updates that shape the company’s competitive outlook. Comments from analysts about the evolving biotech landscape and Biogen’s own advances in neurodegenerative research are adding extra context behind these price moves. On valuation, Biogen currently scores 5 out of 6 on our under/overvalued checks. Let’s break down what factors drive that rating and explore if there is an even smarter way to look at its worth by the end of our discussion.

Find out why Biogen's -9.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Biogen Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s value, providing an estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. The idea is simple: future cash money is worth less than cash today, so these projections account for time and risk.

For Biogen, the DCF model starts with its latest trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $2.18 billion. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next five years, and we see projections for free cash flow increasing steadily, reaching about $2.55 billion by 2029. Beyond this, Simply Wall St extends forecasts out to 2035, but it is important to remember that accuracy naturally diminishes in those far-off years.

Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity method, this DCF model produces an intrinsic value of $314.99 per share. With Biogen’s current share price trading roughly 50.2% below this estimate, the model suggests the stock is significantly undervalued based on future cash flow potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Biogen is undervalued by 50.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 849 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.BIIB Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Biogen.

Approach 2: Biogen Price vs Earnings (PE)

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used valuation tool for profitable companies, as it connects a company's current share price with its actual earnings performance. A lower PE may signal value, while a higher PE typically reflects optimism about future growth prospects or lower risk.

Story Continues

Determining what is “normal” or “fair” for a PE ratio is not just about comparing numbers. It also depends on how fast a company is expected to grow and the risks facing its business. Companies with strong earnings growth or safer, more predictable business models will often justify a higher PE than those with flat profits or more uncertainty.

At the moment, Biogen trades at a PE ratio of 14.3x, noticeably under the Biotechs industry average of 17.46x and well below the peer group average of 21.25x. That might suggest undervaluation on the surface, but simple comparisons can miss important context.

This is where Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio comes in. This proprietary calculation considers Biogen's expected earnings growth, profit margins, industry dynamics, company size, and unique risks to estimate what its PE should reasonably be today. For Biogen, the Fair Ratio stands at 21.42x, higher than the company’s actual multiple.

Because the Fair Ratio takes a holistic, forward-looking approach, it gives investors a more balanced guide than just using broad industry or peer averages. It reflects the specific characteristics and outlook of the company, not just its sector.

With Biogen's current PE at 14.3x and the Fair Ratio at 21.42x, the stock screens as undervalued on this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUEDNasdaqGS:BIIB PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1407 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Biogen Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives, an innovative approach available on Simply Wall St that goes beyond ratios and models by connecting a company’s story directly to a financial forecast and ultimately a custom fair value.

With Narratives, you can build and track the reasoning behind your investment decision, blending your perspective on Biogen’s future, including assumptions about revenues, margins, competition, and key catalysts, with the numbers to create a living investment thesis.

This tool makes it easy to experiment with different scenarios and see how evolving business stories or industry shifts can affect what you think Biogen is truly worth, helping you judge if today’s price is a buying opportunity or a reason to pause.

Unlike static analysis, Narratives update dynamically as new earnings, news, or regulatory events emerge, so your investment outlook grows and adapts alongside the company.

For example, some Community users see Biogen’s long-term global therapy expansion and strong pipeline supporting a high fair value of $260.00 per share. Others, factoring in competitive or policy pressures, estimate a much lower value of $128.00. Your Biogen Narrative can flexibly match whichever story you believe is most likely.

Do you think there's more to the story for Biogen? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NasdaqGS:BIIB Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BIIB.

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