Nvidia Hits $5 Trillion, But Can It Survive Without China?

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could be facing a recalibration of expectations as CEO Jensen Huang moved to clarify the company's stance on China and its booming AI business. Speaking in Taiwan after meetings with TSMC (NYSE:TSM), Huang said Nvidia isn't in active talks to sell its latest Blackwell AI chips to Chinese customers, pushing back against speculation of a near-term return to the world's biggest semiconductor market. He stressed that current U.S. policy remains the deciding factor, though he hopes for future policy changes that would allow Nvidia to serve Chinese demand again. Huang also addressed recent headlines suggesting he predicted China would win the AI race, saying he was simply acknowledging the country's strength in technology, not forecasting dominance.

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Signs with NVDA. Is NVDA fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator.

Despite the trade constraints, Nvidia's ascent has been historic. The company recently hit a $5 trillion market valuationsurpassing both Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)and remains the most valuable business on the planet. Huang has been traveling the globe, forging partnerships across sectors to deepen Nvidia's influence in the AI supply chain, from data centers to industrial systems. His message to investors is steady: AI's massive hardware buildout could translate into long-term productivity gains and justify the trillions already committed to infrastructure, even as skepticism grows about whether the returns will keep pace with spending.

Still, concerns linger across Wall Street about whether Nvidia's pace of growth can be sustained. Rivals like AMD and Broadcom are chasing their share of the AI boom, while U.S. export curbs continue to block access to what Huang once described as a $50 billion opportunity in Chinaan AI market expanding roughly 50% each year. For now, the company's success hinges on global demand holding firm and AI adoption accelerating fast enough to validate the optimism. If that momentum continues, Nvidia's current trajectory could mark only the beginning of a much longer AI investment cycle.

View comments