AI capex to exceed half a trillion in 2026: UBS

Investing.com -- UBS said global capital spending on artificial intelligence will surge to more than half a trillion dollars in 2026, underpinned by “robust fundamentals” and accelerating demand for computing power.

The bank lifted its forecast for global AI capex to $423 billion in 2025 and $571 billion in 2026, up from earlier estimates of $375 billion and $500 billion, respectively.

By 2030, UBS expects overall spending to reach $1.3 trillion, implying a 25% compound annual growth rate over the next five years.

UBS cited a wave of recent megadeals as evidence of growing momentum. “OpenAI and Amazon on Monday announced a seven-year, USD 38 billion agreement,” the bank stated, while “Microsoft said it will buy USD 9.7 billion worth of computing capacity from Australian data center operator IREN.”

These transactions, UBS added, “underscore the growing need for computing power driven by increasingly complex AI applications.”

The firm notes compute demand is “outpacing expectations” and monetization is “accelerating.” UBS pointed to data showing that Google’s Gemini “reported a 130-fold increase over the past 18 months in the consumption of AI tokens,” while Meta’s compute needs “have continued to expand meaningfully and exceeded its expectations.”

Despite rising costs, UBS believes major U.S. tech companies remain financially strong, with capex intensity nearly doubling to 20.8% over the past five years, and forecast to reach 27% by 2030.

UBS concluded that “AI-related stocks should drive equity markets,” adding that “under-allocated investors should add exposure to the theme through a diversified approach.”

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