Moderna (MRNA) Is Down 9.6% After Cutting 2025 Sales Outlook and Ending CMV Vaccine Program – Has Sentiment Shifted?

In the past week, Moderna reported third-quarter 2025 earnings with revenue at US$1.02 billion, down sharply from the previous year, alongside a net loss of US$200 million and lowered full-year revenue guidance to US$1.6–2 billion. An interesting detail is that, while COVID vaccine demand softened and Moderna discontinued its CMV vaccine development, the company maintained cost reductions and advanced key regulatory filings and product launches. To assess how these developments impact Moderna's investment narrative, we'll focus on the implications of its tightened 2025 sales guidance amid ongoing cost-management efforts.

Explore 28 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.

Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

Moderna’s investment thesis centers on whether it can diversify beyond COVID-19 and stabilize its earnings, as falling vaccine sales and a net loss weighed on third-quarter results. The company’s recent narrowing of 2025 revenue guidance signals ongoing revenue volatility but does not materially alter the biggest near-term catalyst, launches of new respiratory vaccines, nor the dominant risk, which remains its heavy reliance on cost cuts amid a shrinking COVID market. Among Moderna’s recent announcements, the US and Canada approval of its new COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, is especially pertinent. This milestone provides short-term support as demand shifts to next-generation COVID vaccines, partially offsetting revenue declines and aligning closely with the company’s focus on product launches to counter lost sales momentum. By contrast, investors should be aware that even as new vaccine products roll out, Moderna’s cost reductions...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's outlook anticipates $3.5 billion in revenue and $498.6 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on a 4.6% annual revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of about $3.4 billion from current earnings of -$2.9 billion.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $40.30 fair value, a 64% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesMRNA Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from US$40.15 up to US$175, reflecting 25 distinct outlooks. Many highlight that persistent revenue volatility in the vaccine portfolio is a key challenge for Moderna’s future performance.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth over 7x more than the current price!

Story Continues

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision. Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

Looking For Alternative Opportunities?

Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don't miss this chance:

The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 25 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement. The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's. These 13 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MRNA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

View Comments