Remitly outlines high-teens 2026 revenue growth outlook amid business and product expansion

Earnings Call Insights: Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* CEO Matthew Oppenheimer indicated that Remitly exceeded its Q3 guidance, highlighting "momentum from last quarter and the early benefits of our growth initiatives, further demonstrating the strength and durability of our business model." He emphasized the company's expansion from a leader in money movement to targeting a larger share of a $22 trillion total addressable market and stressed the importance of customer trust, citing reliability metrics such as "99.99% uptime across the app and web and speed metrics that underscore the value of instant delivery with over 94% of all transactions completed in under an hour and over 97% of transactions completed without customer support contact."
* Oppenheimer announced major expansion in Remitly Business, now available in the U.K. and Canada after a U.S. launch, with "the number of total businesses using the Remitly platform grew sequentially this quarter to nearly 10,000 and average transaction sizes are roughly twice those of our core consumer category." He also detailed targeted growth among high amount senders, with send limits increased to $100,000 per transfer for some U.S. customers and "over 40% year-over-year send volume growth for customers sending more than $1,000, an increase in mix from these customers of more than 200 basis points year-over-year."
* Product innovation was highlighted with Remitly One, including Flex (send now, pay later) and stablecoin initiatives. Flex reached "over 100,000 active users at the end of Q3," and Wallet and digital debit card products saw "healthy early adoption."
* Oppenheimer mentioned the upcoming Investor Day on December 9, 2025, and emphasized the company’s readiness to benefit from the 1% tax on cash remittances effective January 1, 2026, which is expected to drive more volume to digital-first players like Remitly.
* CFO Vikas Mehta stated, "third quarter revenue was $419.5 million, up 25% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA was $61.2 million, representing a 15% margin." He also noted, "send volume grew 35% to $19.5 billion," and that "send volume per active customers increased 11% year-over-year."

OUTLOOK

* For Q4 2025, Remitly expects revenue of $426 million to $428 million, representing 21% to 22% growth. For the full year, expected revenue is between $1.619 billion and $1.621 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 28%.
* Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 is projected between $50 million and $52 million, with full-year adjusted EBITDA expected between $234 million and $236 million, representing a 15% margin.
* The company anticipates "revenue growth to outpace quarterly active customer growth, driven by the continued momentum among business and high amount senders."
* Early guidance for 2026 is for revenue growth "to be in the high teens range," with management noting this as an initial view subject to Q4 results, while citing the digital remittance tax tailwind and product innovation as positive contributors.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Revenue for Q3 2025 was $419.5 million, up 25% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $61.2 million, representing a 15% margin.
* Send volume increased to $19.5 billion, a 35% year-over-year rise. Quarterly active customers reached nearly 8.9 million, up 21% year-over-year.
* Take rate was 2.15%. RLTE (Revenue Less Transaction Expense) dollars grew 23.4% to $272.8 million.
* U.S. revenue rose 28%, while "rest of the world grew 20% year-over-year, a sequential deceleration." Mexico receive revenue growth continued to outperform overall company growth.
* Flex revenue nearly doubled sequentially. Transaction expenses were $146.7 million, with a provision for transaction losses of $25 million.
* Marketing spend was $87.5 million, representing 20.8% of revenue. G&A expense was $42.8 million. GAAP net income for Q3 was $8.8 million.

Q&A

* Tien-Tsin Huang, JPMorgan: Asked about the 2026 outlook and the impact of new products and remittance tax. Oppenheimer responded, "remittance tax, which will take shape starting 2026 will be a net benefit for us... our marketing efforts, our execution is tailored to take share more and more from the physical to the digital space."
* Huang also asked about incremental margins from new product launches. CFO Mehta replied, "we remain very balanced... we have continued to leverage on the big expense categories and continue to drive margin expansion."
* Gustavo Gala, Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.: Queried the Q4 margin swing and marketing investments. Oppenheimer explained, "the flywheel is spinning with more scale... we have a lot of levers at our disposal to both grow on the top and bottom line."
* Cristopher Kennedy, William Blair: Asked about balancing investment between new markets and new initiatives. Oppenheimer stated, "good news is that we get more efficient at a variety of different growth areas... our platform is getting more efficient and more effective."
* David Scharf, Citizens JMP: Asked about Flex's credit profile. Mehta clarified, "we have 90% current balance for members and nonmembers... negligible balance that remains over 90 days past due and that the charge-offs have been immaterial since the program's inception."
* Zheqian Deng, KeyBanc: Requested comparison of economics between business and high-dollar senders. Oppenheimer said, "average transaction sizes are roughly twice those of our core consumer category."
* Zachary Gunn, FT Partners: Questioned the implied Q4 and 2026 revenue deceleration and take rate compression. Mehta noted, "take rate is impacted by a lot of different factors... our year-over-year RLT dollars grew over 23%."

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts pressed management on decelerating growth rates, margin expansion, and the risk profile of new products, with a tone that was neutral to slightly cautious as they sought clarification on guidance and product impact.
* Management maintained a confident and optimistic tone during both prepared remarks and Q&A, emphasizing "we feel great about the setup for FY'26" and "very optimistic and very excited about what's to come."
* Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone remains positive, with greater emphasis on discipline and prudent outlook for 2026 amid macro headwinds.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Q3 guidance and actuals surpassed Q2 expectations, but guidance for 2026 signals a deceleration to high-teens revenue growth versus prior higher rates.
* Strategic focus has shifted further toward scaling Remitly Business, high amount senders, and product expansion with Flex and Wallet, building on launches initiated in Q2.
* Analysts in both quarters focused on the economics and scalability of new initiatives, with Q3 discussion more centered on margin sustainability and the impact of macro trends.
* Key metrics such as send volume, active customers, and RLTE dollars continued to grow, though at moderately lower rates than Q2.
* Management tone remains optimistic but is now paired with more explicit caution regarding macro uncertainties and immigration trends.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management cited "recent immigration headwinds in key send countries such as the U.S. and Canada" as a potential drag on new customer acquisition for 2026.
* Transaction losses are expected to remain consistent with Q3 levels.
* Analyst questions highlighted concerns about take rate compression, marketing spend efficiency, and the risk profile of Flex.
* Management highlighted ongoing investments in AI-driven risk models and compliance as mitigation strategies.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Remitly delivered another quarter of strong revenue and profitability, driven by business expansion in new markets and customer categories, as well as robust adoption of new products like Flex and Wallet. Looking ahead, the company projects high-teens revenue growth for 2026, supported by anticipated benefits from digital remittance tax legislation and continued investment in product innovation and operational efficiency, while remaining vigilant regarding macroeconomic and regulatory risks.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rely/earnings/transcripts]

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