Here’s how high JPMorgan thinks Bitcoin can go by year-end

JPMorgan analysts believe that Bitcoin's current price is "too low" compared to gold.

In a conversation with The Block, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou suggests that the cryptocurrency can rise to $126,000 by the end of 2025.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to 30% Strategy and Metaplanet's inclusion in equity indices are boosting passive Bitcoin exposure Bitcoin's volatility-to-gold ratio has dropped to 2.0, the lowest ever

The prediction comes at a time when Bitcoin's volatility has collapsed to historic lows, which should help institutions start thinking of Bitcoin similarly to gold as an asset class for portfolios.

"Yes, this is the upside we highlighted in our note, which we envisage to be reached by year-end," said Panigirtzoglou, managing director of JP Morgan.

The bank observed that Bitcoin's volatility in relation to gold has reportedly fallen to a record-low ratio of 2.0, meaning it requires only twice as much risk capital in portfolios as gold, as per the report.

Assuming the metric is in order, the $2.2 trillion market capitalization of Bitcoin would need to increase by roughly 13% to approximately $2.5 trillion to set a fair value at $126,000 per coin.

Corporate treasuries are locking up supply

He attributes much of the decline in volatility to a boom in corporate treasury buys, which now account for over 6% of Bitcoin's supply.

The trend has further locked up a huge amount of the asset in a manner similar to JPMorgan's comparison to central bank quantitative easing after 2008, which reduced volatility in bond markets.

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In addition, the competition between corporate treasuries is heating up! Nasdaq-listed KindlyMD has filed to raise up to $5 billion to enhance its Bitcoin reserves, and Adam Back's Twenty-First Capital is manoeuvring to become the second-largest corporate holder, just behind Strategy, and ahead of Marathon Digital.

Passive inflows from index inclusions

Passive inflows have also expanded, thanks to index inclusions. Strategy Inc. was added to the major equity benchmarks.

Metaplanet's status as a mid-cap company led to its inclusion in the FTSE All-World index through its promotion. Both moves have brought Bitcoin exposure to more portfolios worldwide.

Related: What are yield coins? Yield bearing assets explained

JPMorgan said in its note that the dynamic is changing. At the end of 2024, Bitcoin traded at $36,000 over fair value on a risk-adjusted basis, and today trades $13,000 under fair value, implying that it could further increase.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $112,416.05, nearly flat over the last 24 hours.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 28, 2025, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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