China posts higher-than-expected trade surplus despite weakening exports

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Igor Kutyaev

China’s trade surplus came in at USD 102.33 billion in August 2025, surpassing expectations of USD 99.2 billion and higher than the USD 91.29 billion recorded in the same month a year earlier, driven by exports continuing to outpace imports, though both showed signs of weakness.

China's exports grew by 4.4% to USD 321.8 billion in August, falling short of the 5% forecast and marking the weakest performance in six months, weighed down by a temporary easing of tariff pressures and waning demand from its top consumer market.

Shipments to the U.S. were a significant drag, plunging 33% as the effects of persistent tariffs weakened front-loading activity.

China’s imports rose 1.3% y/y to USD 219.4 billion in August 2025, marking the third month of increase but missing market estimates of 3.0%. The pace also slowed from July’s 4.1% rise, the fastest pace in a year, as softer domestic demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs weighed on trade momentum.

Year-to-date, China posted a total trade surplus of USD 785.3 billion, with exports up 5.9% y/y, while imports fell by 2.2% compared to the same period in 2024.

On Monday, the Shanghai Composite [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHCOMP?source=section%3Asearch_bar%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection_asset%3Asearch-basic%7Csearch_item%3Ashcomp%7Crow_num%3A1%7CURL_first_level%3Anews%7Ctopic%3Asymbol] rose 0.3% to around 3,825 while the Shenzhen Component added 0.2% to 12,610 on Monday, marking a second straight day of gains as risk appetite improved, and the offshore yuan [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USD:CNY#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aglobal%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link] edged lower to around 7.13 per dollar on Monday, giving back gains from the previous session, as investors digested subdued export data.

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Currency: (CNY:USD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNY:USD])

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