Historical probability of loss by holding period
Does the share of historical loss samples fall as the holding period lengthens?
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Sample as of
0700.HK Tencent Holdings | Hang Seng Index | 2025-10-16 – 2026-10-16 | HKD
- Latest value
- 10.9 %
- Period average
- 21.3 %
- Period high
- 57.6 %
- Period low
- 0 %
Historical probability of loss by holding period
Share of negative-return samples (%) (Line)
Valid sample size (observations)
Valid sample size (observations) (Bar)
Event detail and data date
Share of negative-return samples (%) and Valid sample size (observations) (Table)
Sample data rows
| Trading day/observation period | Share of negative-return samples (%) | Valid sample size (observations) | Data date (sample) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | 38 | 55 | 2025-10-16 |
| 2025-11-03 | 6.1 | 22 | 2025-11-03 |
| 2025-11-17 | 15.6 | 28 | 2025-11-17 |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.1 | 6 | 2025-12-03 |
| 2025-12-19 | 23.5 | 20 | 2025-12-19 |
| 2026-01-02 | 36.7 | 55 | 2026-01-02 |
| 2026-01-20 | 23.7 | 35 | 2026-01-20 |
| 2026-02-05 | 16.3 | 7 | 2026-02-05 |
| 2026-02-23 | 28.9 | 20 | 2026-02-23 |
| 2026-03-09 | 48.6 | 125 | 2026-03-09 |
| 2026-03-25 | 18.3 | 26 | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-04-10 | 0 | 26 | 2026-04-10 |
| 2026-04-24 | 27.9 | 30 | 2026-04-24 |
| 2026-05-12 | 14 | 66 | 2026-05-12 |
| 2026-05-28 | 3.6 | 29 | 2026-05-28 |
| 2026-06-11 | 42.7 | 28 | 2026-06-11 |
| 2026-06-29 | 22.9 | 52 | 2026-06-29 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2.8 | 96 | 2026-07-15 |
| 2026-07-31 | 35.6 | 8 | 2026-07-31 |
| 2026-08-14 | 17.9 | 31 | 2026-08-14 |
| 2026-09-01 | 19.4 | 19 | 2026-09-01 |
| 2026-09-17 | 39.1 | 119 | 2026-09-17 |
| 2026-10-01 | 0 | 50 | 2026-10-01 |
| 2026-10-16 | 10.9 | 37 | 2026-10-16 |